Friday, October 22, 2004

Unintended Consequences

The Moose suggests that honest hawks must be concerned that the Iraq war is strengthening the hand of the leading threat in the axis of evil

Conservatives have long held dear the law of unintended consequences. For instance, regardless of good intentions, the right has argued, the war against poverty had the unintended consequence of increasing dependency and deepening impoverishment.

That is what came to the Moose’s mind when he read Robin Wright’s lead story in today’s Washington Post, “Religious Leaders Ahead in Iraq Poll.” The story cites a poll taken in Iraq by the International Republican Institute, which no one can claim is a French-loving left-wing outfit.

The IRI poll found that the most popular politicians in liberated Iraq are Iran-supported pols –

“The poll found the most popular politician is Abdel Aziz Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). The group was part of the U.S.-backed opposition to Saddam Hussein and is now receiving millions of dollars in aid from Iran, U.S. officials say.”

And further –

“The one factor that skews the poll, analysts said, is that Ibrahim Jafari, the Dawa Party chief and current vice president, was not included. He had the highest popularity rating in previous polls. That may still be the case, since almost 18 percent of Iraqis surveyed by IRI said they were most likely to vote for Dawa candidates -- the largest backing among the top 11 parties listed. Dawa is another former U.S.-backed group supported by aid from Iran, U.S. officials say.”

Since the end of the war, Iran has been extremely active among the Shia. While attention has focused on the violent Sunni Triangle, the real long-term threat to the anti-terrorist cause may be the emergence of an Iranian client state with support drawn from the majority Shia based in the relatively peaceful south.

The law of unintended consequences – a strengthened Iran, armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons and a client state as a neighbor. And Charles Krauthammer has the chutzpah to suggest that Kerry would be bad for Israel!
-- Posted at 11:30 AM | Link to this post | Email this post