The Coming Religious Right Rebellion
The Moose suggests that social conservatives have some issues.
Republican rule is now jeopardized by a scandal involving a sexual predator and a possible cover-up. How can social conservatives - the most significant component of the GOP base - view this development?
Republicans came to power in '94 in large part as a result of the social conservative fury over the perceived social liberalism of the Clinton Administration. Without the active and energized involvement of the religious right, the GOP would never had been in the majority. And if they stay at home next month, a Democratic majority in one or both chambers is guaranteed.
After twelve years of Republican rule, social conservatives have not gotten much compared to the goodies handed out to economic conservatives and corporate supporters. And now, Republicans have a cybersex scandal - with young pages.
Social conservatives are not amused. The Washington Post notes the dissatisfaction in the ranks of the faithful,
"A nationwide poll of 1,500 registered voters released yesterday by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center found that 57 percent of white evangelicals are inclined to vote for Republican congressional candidates in the midterm elections, a 21-point drop in support among this critical part of the GOP base."
Even beyond the question of whether demoralized social conservatives stay home in November, there is a long term problem for the GOP. How does the party continue to maintain the coalition of economic libertarians, corporate conservatives, foreign policy hawks and the religious right? This challenge will be confronted in the '08 Presidential race.
Regardless of whether the GOP holds on to its majority, expect the social conservatives to be disgruntled and dissatisfied. The religious right may very well become a mirror image of the activist left in the Democratic Party. Rather than being pragmatic after GOP congressional setbacks, social conservatives may be demanding more ideological purity from a Presidential candidate. And Iowa is the first caucus state where social conservatives are particularly strong in that state's GOP.
With the bases of both parties seeking purity, will the center be ignored? The Democrats are animated by the anti-war left and the GOP may be dominated by a social conservative right that feels betrayed and neglected.
Can the center hold in '08? -- | 
Email
this post
Thursday, October 05, 2006
The Moose is smiling from antler to antler.
Here is why. A Reuters/Zogby poll released Thursday,
"Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, has a 53 percent to 33 percent lead on Democratic anti-war challenger Ned Lamont. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the party primary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war."
Go Joe, Go! -- | Email
this post
The Moose observes that the thrill may soon be gone.
Why do conservatives continue to support the Bush Administration? The Moose can only think of two primary reasons - court nominees and the Democratic alternative.
Many conservatives also believe the President has been steadfast in the war again the Jihadists, and they share his vision of the nature of the conflict. Indeed, the Moose agrees with the view that a genuine democratic transformation of the Middle East is the only way to vanquish the evil that is battling for the soul of Islam. It is a very good thing that Saddam is gone from power.
But, how can any honest conservative not be deeply disgusted with the Administration's management of the war? It is now clear that the Administration betrayed its vision by failing to provide sufficient resources. Specifically, the Bushies ignored the need for more troops. And, it is also obvious that the Administration is not listening to the growing chorus of conservatives that is calling for a significant infusion of more troops in Iraq. Despite his innumerable failures, Rummy apparently isn't going anywhere.
Yesterday, the Washington Post editorialized,
"It nevertheless seems clear that U.S. chances for success would have been far better than they are today were it not for the overwhelming and shocking incompetence with which the administration has managed the war. From the failure to produce a coherent postwar plan to the disastrous performance by the occupation authority that was belatedly installed, the Bush team turned a difficult mission into a near-impossible one. President Bush and his most senior aides meanwhile stubbornly refused to listen to advisers who warned of the consequences of their policies."
Back in 1990, the right rebelled against the first President Bush when he raised taxes. Isn't a failure in Iraq much, much worse than an increase in marginal tax rates? Can't the right muster at least as much outrage about the possibility of losing the war than they did over the Dubai port deal? When it comes to Iraq, the right is far too polite.
The Moose does not expect a conservative rebellion against this Administration before the November election. However, when that day passes, will the right finally express their opposition to an Administration policy that is clearly failing?
A defeat in Iraq would constitute an unmitigated disaster for our war against Jihadism. And what exactly is our tough policy against the Iranian mullahs? Are we advancing even non-violent regime change? Administration officials sound increasingly Carter-like in their hapless efforts to deny nukes to the mullahs. If a Democratic Administration displayed this type of weakness, conservatives would be rioting in the streets. While many lefties are blinded by Bush rage, many on the right fail to do what is right out of loyalty to the Administration.
But, the Moose senses that conservatives may a be a bit more vocal come on November 8 when Republicans may be in the minority in one or both Chambers of Congress. -- | Email
this post
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
The Moose urges the Speaker to stand his ground.
The Moose is aghast by the betrayal of the Speaker by some conservatives. Sure, the Speaker failed to act responsibly after he learned about the disgusting actions of Congressman Foley toward teenage pages. Of course, the Speaker neglected to act in a bi-partisan manner by not notifying the Democrats of Foley's misdeeds. Certainly, the Speaker has refused to take responsibility for the failures of the leadership to crack down on Foley.
Leave no pervert behind.
But, why should the Speaker be held accountable? After all, Republicans are acting just like Republicans do these days in Washington. From DeLay to Rummy, it is a pattern of rejecting accountability. Blame the media. Blame the other party. Go on the conservative talk show circuit and point an accusatory finger at the donkey.
Just don't take responsibility, ever.
And these are the tough-minded conservatives who long for an accountability culture?
It is the view of the Moose that the Speaker should stay exactly where he is because he perfectly represents his party. He is the symbol of Republican rule. And, in November, there will be an accountability moment.
These guys can't run a page program, much less a government.
Don't misunderstand the Moose. He is no partisan mammal. But, one party's monopoly on power is just not working.
It is a deeply sad moment. Our leaders can't even take responsibility for protecting children in their care. Now, more than ever, we need leadership from the Coalition of the Adults. -- | Email
this post
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
The Moose comments on how far the elephant has fallen.
The Moose witnessed the Republican Revolution of '94. He remembers the fervent calls for reform and renewal. Now, the House GOP is rightly staring into the abyss. The Foley revelation is the latest representation of the perversion of power.
It took the Republicans a little more than a decade to achieve what forty years of Democratic rule accomplished - the institutionalization of corruption. The major difference is that the elephant masqueraded as a reformist, moral revolutionary. Hypocrisy is truly the tribute vice pays to virtue. These guys give Elmer Gantry a bad name.
How can fiscal conservatives continue to endorse Republican rule? How can social conservatives embrace a House leadership that neglected to expel a child predator from their ranks? How can reformists applaud the Abramoff Congress?
House Republicans are neither the responsible custodians of the taxpayer dollars nor of teenage pages. The Foley episode will depress the social conservative turnout. They did not exactly elect a Republican Congress so it could go soft on child predators. And how do Republicans scare social conservatives about the prospects of a Democratic Congress - suggest that they will coddle perverts? Even the Washington Times has gone south on Hastert.
Whichever party prevails in November, cynicism will be the big winner. It is fair to say that Republicans cannot clean house. If Democrats gain control of the House or the Senate, triumpalism is not in order. Rather, it is imperative that triumphant Democrats begin the task of restoring confidence in government. That will not be easy.
While it far from a certainty that Democrats will gain control over Congress, it is increasingly likely, and thoughtful donkeys should begin examining how they would govern. In view of the latest revelations about the Bush Administration, there may be an extraordinary pressure from the base of the party for the Democrats to move to impeachment hearings by next spring. That would be a disaster for the country. America is looking for thoughtful solutions, not more partisan warfare.
How will the donkey begin the process of vanquishing cynicism? -- | Email
this post
Sunday, October 01, 2006
The Moose wishes all of the Mooseketeer mishpocha an easy fast! -- | Email
this post
